Warum strukturierte analysetechniken?
The human being has basically two different possibilities to think about problems. He can think quickly and intuitively (System 1 thinking) or he can think slowly and consciously (System 2 thinking).[1] For the profession of the analyst it can be stated that intuitive thinking and judgment are often dominant. However, intuitive or fast thinking can be subject to systematic errors called biases and heuristics.[2] These errors occur unconsciously and are thus beyond the analyst's volitional control. However, increased reliance on System 2 thinking can limit the impact of these systematic errors. Structured Analytic Techniques represent a form of System 2 thinking and thus can help produce better analyses.[3] The following explanations are only available in german language.
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[2] Zum Thema Biases und Heuristiken siehe beispielsweise: Kahneman, Daniel: Schnelles Denken, Langsames Denken, Penguin Verlag, 13. Auflage, München: 2012 und Heuer, Jr., Richards J.: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.
[3] Als Standardpublikation und Nachschlagewerk empfehle ich: Heuer, Richards / Pherson, Randolph: Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd Edition, CQ Press, California, 2015. Eine kürzere und übersichtlichere Publikation für Analysten, welche die wesentlichen SATs bereits beherrschen empfehle ich: Pherson, Randolph H.: Handbook of Analytic Tools & Techniques, 5th ed., Pherson Associates, LLC: 2018. Für einen kostenlosen ersten Einstieg kann die folgende Publikation dienen: A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis, Prepared by the US Government, 2009, Online: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf [Zugriff: 18.08.2019]