The modern world is inundated with a wave of constant change and information, and organizations are faced with the challenging task of making smart decisions in this sea of data. In this in-depth article, we will not only look at the basics of intelligence, but also dive into the various fields of application and the crucial role intelligence plays in Germany.
Humans have two fundamentally different ways of thinking about problems. They can think quickly and intuitively (System 1 thinking) or they can think slowly and deliberately (System 2 thinking).[1] For the profession of the analyst, it can be stated that intuitive thinking and judging are often dominant. However, intuitive or fast thinking can be subject to systematic errors called biases and heuristics.[2] These errors occur unconsciously and thus elude the analyst's conscious control. However, increased reliance on system 2 thinking can limit the impact of these systematic errors. Structured Analytic Techniques are a form of system 2 thinking and can thus help to produce better analysis.[3]
[1] For more on the two forms of thinking, see: Kahneman, Daniel: Schnelles Denken, Langsames Denken, Penguin Verlag, 13. Auflage, München: 2012.
[2] On the topic of biases and heuristics, see for example: Kahneman, Daniel: Schnelles Denken, Langsames Denken, Penguin Verlag, 13. Auflage, München: 2012 andHeuer, Jr., Richards J.: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.
[3] As a reference work and standard publication, I recommend: Heuer, Richards / Pherson, Randolph: Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd Edition, CQ Press, California, 2015. I recommend a shorter and more concise publication for analysts who have already mastered the essential SATs: Pherson, Randolph H.: Handbook of Analytic Tools & Techniques, 5th ed., Pherson Associates, LLC: 2018. The following publication can be used for a free initial introduction: A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis, Prepared by the US Government, 2009, Online: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf [Zugriff: 18.08.2019]
