Navigating Uncertainty – Hypothesis Generation and Testing
The world of intelligence is a world of uncertainty. We are confronted with incomplete and contradictory information and with denial and deception. Despite this environment, intelligence personnel is expected to provide approximately correct answers. One tool without which this would not be possible is the generation and testing of hypotheses.
This Deep Dive Day provides all the necessary knowledge in a hands-on approach to be able to work with hypotheses in a reflective and systematic manner. It thus provides both beginners and advanced practitioners with the tools they need to navigate the many depths of uncertainty.
SCHEDULE
Details
Target Audience
This training is for the initial or supplemental training of your staff. It lays the foundations for an occupation in the field of intelligence or deepens already existing knowledge.
Benefits
- After completing the Deep Dive Day: "Navigating Uncertainty", you will acquire the following capabilities:
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• Understand the cognitive-psychological foundations of the analysis process and grasp its implications for your analyses. This includes undergoing a test to evaluate biases, heuristics, and intuitive traps. -
• Effectively categorize where on the Analytical Spectrum the Generation and Testing of Hypotheses proves beneficial. -
• Master the skill of generating a comprehensive set of potential explanations for events and developments using two Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs). -
• Identify the most probable explanations for past or present events and developments through the application of the SAT Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). -
• By learning hands-on in a realistic scenario, you will acquire the ability to seamlessly apply what you have learned in your own work.
What you get
- • A detailed explanation of the three elementary Structured Analytic Techniques Simple Hypothesis, Multiple Hypothesis Generator and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
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• Guidance in applying the techniques in an easy-to-understand use case -
• Guaranteed delivery of the training -
• A pre-reading package with the scenario covered and the analytic techniques used -
• 10% discount on the "Structured Analysis Basic-Training" (only available in German) -
• A certificate of participation
Summary:
Training: Deep Dive Day: Navigating Uncertainty
Price: 650€ plus 19% VAT
Prior Knowledge: No previous knowledge is necessary
Content: This Webinar covers three of the most important Structured Analytic Techniques
Duration: 1 day
Delivery method: Webinar (online)
Technical requirements: Zoom, Webcam, Headset
Completion: Participation Certificate